Connor McDavid vs Mikael Backlund
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (68% H2H, 69 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Backlund 49.0% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 106-67 in 173 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 78.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 50.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 62.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
McDavid
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
67
-
106
(173 meetings)
67
106
McDavid
Backlund
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
29
22
McDavid
Backlund
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
16
37
McDavid
Backlund
53 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
22
47
McDavid
Backlund
69 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
49.7% (13,463)
-2.0%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
51.5% (1,338)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
43.9% (2,465)
-0.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (11,020).
Home / Away
McDavid
Backlund
Home
49.3% (4,582)
49.7% (8,621)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
48.3% (8,650)
By Period
McDavid
Backlund
P1
46.5%
48.5%
P2
48.7%
50.3%
P3
48.3%
48.4%
OT
42.2%
45.1%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 04:17 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 14:44 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 09:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 04:31 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 12:03 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:02 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 04:37 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | OT | 03:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:52 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |