Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Kadri 46.9% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 59.0%
Defensive zone
Kadri 57.5%
Neutral zone
Kadri 60.2%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
McDavid
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
McDavid
Kadri
Last 9: McDavid 3-6 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
0
3
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
2
McDavid
Kadri
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
46.5% (866)
+1.2%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
48.8% (86)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
38.5% (13)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Kadri is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kadri
Home
50.0% (412)
45.8% (513)
Away
45.7% (394)
47.6% (452)
By Period
McDavid
Kadri
P1
48.0%
52.4%
P2
48.5%
48.5%
P3
47.1%
39.7%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.6%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |