Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.6%). Look for Kadri on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Kadri 48.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Kadri leads 33-23 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 57.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 57.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
McDavid
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
33
(56 meetings)
23
33
McDavid
Kadri
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
11
10
McDavid
Kadri
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
6
8
McDavid
Kadri
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
6
15
McDavid
Kadri
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
48.1% (12,555)
-0.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
53.0% (1,892)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
41.0% (293)
+2.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Kadri is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,402).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kadri
Home
49.3% (4,582)
49.1% (7,493)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
48.1% (7,250)
By Period
McDavid
Kadri
P1
46.5%
49.1%
P2
48.7%
48.7%
P3
48.3%
47.9%
OT
42.2%
49.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 05:42 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 18:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:12 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 08:34 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 01:16 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:45 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 16:50 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |