Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.5%). Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Dowd 48.6% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 83.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
McDavid
Dowd
Last 6: McDavid 2-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
McDavid
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
McDavid
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.0% (671)
-3.3%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
0.0% (2)
+49.3%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
41.5% (224)
+7.4%
On power play, McDavid has a +49.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
50.0% (412)
48.2% (471)
Away
45.7% (394)
48.8% (426)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
48.0%
48.3%
P2
48.5%
46.8%
P3
47.1%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |