Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 37-13 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 88.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 68.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.5%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
McDavid
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
37
(50 meetings)
13
37
McDavid
Dowd
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
McDavid
Dowd
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
11
McDavid
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
5
20
McDavid
Dowd
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
52.3% (6,036)
-4.6%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.1% (164)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
44.1% (1,638)
-0.3%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
McDavid
Dowd
Home
49.3% (4,582)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
McDavid
Dowd
P1
46.5%
51.5%
P2
48.7%
50.4%
P3
48.3%
50.3%
OT
42.2%
45.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 11:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 15:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:39 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:44 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 10:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 3 | 02:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 1 | 00:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |