Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Paul 53.6% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 61.9%
Defensive zone
Paul 81.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 66.6%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 66.0%
34.0%
66.0%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McDavid
Paul
Last 6: McDavid 4-2 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
McDavid
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.7% (354)
-6.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
59.0% (61)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
52.9% (34)
-4.0%
On power play, Paul has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
50.0% (412)
55.1% (216)
Away
45.7% (394)
53.6% (233)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
48.0%
54.9%
P2
48.5%
54.5%
P3
47.1%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.6%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |