Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Paul 52.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 20-19 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 58.1%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
McDavid
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
20
(39 meetings)
19
20
McDavid
Paul
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
13
4
McDavid
Paul
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
12
McDavid
Paul
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
McDavid
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
52.6% (3,823)
-4.9%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.2% (484)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
46.9% (576)
-3.1%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
49.3% (4,582)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
46.5%
53.8%
P2
48.7%
51.0%
P3
48.3%
52.2%
OT
42.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:13 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 10:21 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 18:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:38 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:17 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 16:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |