Connor McDavid vs Nick Paul

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Nick Paul holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) McDavid 47.8% vs Paul 52.2% (-4.5%)
H2H factor Paul leads 20-19 in 39 meetings
Offensive zone McDavid 69.0%
Defensive zone Paul 58.1%
Neutral zone McDavid 55.7%
Result Connor McDavid favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
McDavid Paul
Head-to-Head Record
19 - 20 (39 meetings)
19
20
McDavid Paul
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Paul

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
13
4
McDavid Paul
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
12
McDavid Paul
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
2
4
McDavid Paul
6 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
McDavid
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
52.6% (3,823)
-4.9%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.2% (484)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
46.9% (576)
-3.1%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.9% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Paul shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
McDavid
Paul
Home
49.3% (4,582)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
McDavid
Paul
P1
46.5%
53.8%
P2
48.7%
51.0%
P3
48.3%
52.2%
OT
42.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%
51.5%
47.8%
Paul
54.0%
56.5%
52.3%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Mar 21, 2026 2 12:13 Neutral Nick Paul
Mar 21, 2026 1 08:24 Offensive Connor McDavid
Nov 20, 2025 3 10:05 Offensive Connor McDavid
Nov 20, 2025 2 06:42 Offensive Connor McDavid
Nov 20, 2025 2 04:42 Defensive Nick Paul
Nov 20, 2025 1 07:19 Offensive Connor McDavid
Dec 10, 2024 3 06:07 Offensive Nick Paul
Dec 10, 2024 3 01:47 Offensive Connor McDavid
Dec 10, 2024 2 10:21 Neutral Connor McDavid
Dec 14, 2023 3 18:03 Defensive Nick Paul
Dec 14, 2023 3 11:38 Defensive Nick Paul
Dec 14, 2023 2 17:34 Offensive Connor McDavid
Dec 14, 2023 2 07:17 Defensive Nick Paul
Dec 14, 2023 2 00:00 Neutral Connor McDavid
Dec 14, 2023 1 14:14 Defensive Nick Paul
Nov 18, 2023 1 00:52 Defensive Nick Paul
Nov 8, 2022 3 12:04 Defensive Connor McDavid
Nov 8, 2022 3 12:00 Offensive Nick Paul
Nov 8, 2022 3 10:14 Defensive Connor McDavid
Nov 8, 2022 1 16:07 Defensive Nick Paul