Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 52.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 75.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.7%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
McDavid
Schmaltz
Last 7: McDavid 5-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
0
McDavid
Schmaltz
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
45.9% (697)
+1.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
47.9% (117)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
48.0% (25)
+0.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
50.0% (412)
44.9% (434)
Away
45.7% (394)
47.7% (405)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
48.0%
41.5%
P2
48.5%
46.7%
P3
47.1%
51.1%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |