Connor McDavid vs Nick Schmaltz
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 18-7 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 79.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 93.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 86.0%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 87.5%
87.5%
12.5%
McDavid
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
7
(25 meetings)
18
7
McDavid
Schmaltz
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
1
McDavid
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
6
3
McDavid
Schmaltz
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
8
3
McDavid
Schmaltz
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
41.3% (3,431)
+6.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
47.3% (655)
+4.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
47.4% (135)
-3.6%
On even strength, McDavid has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. McDavid is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,120).
McDavid shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,049).
Home / Away
McDavid
Schmaltz
Home
49.3% (4,582)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
McDavid
Schmaltz
P1
46.5%
41.3%
P2
48.7%
42.8%
P3
48.3%
43.1%
OT
42.2%
42.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 09:39 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 18:17 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 2 | 16:11 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 08:01 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 4, 2019 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 09:52 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:50 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 2 | 00:54 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 29, 2017 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |