Scouting Report
Nico Hischier holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hischier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Hischier 55.4% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hischier 59.6%
Defensive zone
Hischier 75.4%
Neutral zone
Hischier 65.1%
Result
Nico Hischier favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
McDavid
Hischier
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
McDavid
Hischier
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Hischier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
1
McDavid
Hischier
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hischier
3
4
McDavid
Hischier
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hischier
1
3
McDavid
Hischier
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hischier
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
55.5% (1,172)
-7.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
64.5% (265)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
43.9% (164)
+5.0%
On power play, Hischier has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hischier shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Hischier is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,026).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hischier
Home
50.0% (412)
56.8% (791)
Away
45.7% (394)
54.8% (810)
By Period
McDavid
Hischier
P1
48.0%
56.0%
P2
48.5%
58.6%
P3
47.1%
53.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Hischier
66.0%▲
58.0%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 05:23 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 02:04 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 14:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 08:32 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 04:11 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:37 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Nico Hischier |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 04:59 | Defensive | Nico Hischier |