Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Cates 45.5% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 67.0%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDavid
Cates
Last 8: McDavid 5-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Cates
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
1
McDavid
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
45.5% (756)
+2.2%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
42.1% (114)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
44.7% (47)
+4.2%
On power play, McDavid has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
50.0% (412)
46.2% (468)
Away
45.7% (394)
43.9% (449)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
48.0%
46.0%
P2
48.5%
47.5%
P3
47.1%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |