Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Cates 43.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 17-12 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 86.4%
Defensive zone
McDavid 61.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
McDavid
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
12
(29 meetings)
17
12
McDavid
Cates
Last 10: McDavid 6-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
4
3
McDavid
Cates
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
4
McDavid
Cates
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
11
5
McDavid
Cates
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
44.1% (2,786)
+3.6%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
42.9% (254)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
34.9% (373)
+8.9%
On power play, McDavid has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
McDavid
Cates
Home
49.3% (4,582)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
McDavid
Cates
P1
46.5%
44.5%
P2
48.7%
43.7%
P3
48.3%
41.2%
OT
42.2%
29.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 15:38 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 13:08 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 03:36 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:55 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:14 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:52 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:33 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |