Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Rakell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Rakell 40.7% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 69.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 78.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 65.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
McDavid
Rakell
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Rakell
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Rakell
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Rakell
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
35.3% (136)
+12.4%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
43.8% (32)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
0.0% (7)
+48.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +48.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rakell shoots right. McDavid is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (226).
McDavid shoots left. Rakell is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
McDavid
Rakell
Home
50.0% (412)
41.5% (82)
Away
45.7% (394)
30.1% (93)
By Period
McDavid
Rakell
P1
48.0%
35.6%
P2
48.5%
37.3%
P3
47.1%
31.1%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Rakell
38.0%▲
35.0%
35.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 02:26 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |