Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Greig shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Greig 51.1% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 83.7%
Neutral zone
Greig 54.3%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
McDavid
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McDavid
Greig
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Greig
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.9% (347)
-4.2%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
66.7% (24)
-17.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
44.8% (87)
+4.1%
On power play, Greig has a +17.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
McDavid
Greig
Home
50.0% (412)
50.4% (254)
Away
45.7% (394)
52.5% (204)
By Period
McDavid
Greig
P1
48.0%
45.9%
P2
48.5%
60.1%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |