Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Greig 49.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 76.5%
Defensive zone
Greig 64.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 58.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
McDavid
Greig
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McDavid
Greig
Last 8: McDavid 3-5 Greig
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
2
McDavid
Greig
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
0
3
McDavid
Greig
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
0
McDavid
Greig
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Greig
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
48.7% (1,144)
-1.0%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
56.8% (74)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
47.2% (178)
-3.4%
On power play, Greig has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greig shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
McDavid
Greig
Home
49.3% (4,582)
49.9% (688)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
48.0% (708)
By Period
McDavid
Greig
P1
46.5%
46.0%
P2
48.7%
51.8%
P3
48.3%
49.1%
OT
42.2%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 17:40 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |