Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.9% vs 48.0%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Bennett 48.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bennett 50.6%
Defensive zone
McDavid 52.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 51.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
McDavid
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
McDavid
Bennett
Last 7: McDavid 4-3 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
McDavid
Bennett
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Bennett
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
2
McDavid
Bennett
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
46.4% (811)
+1.3%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
56.9% (153)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
47.8% (46)
+1.1%
On power play, Bennett has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Bennett is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (679).
Home / Away
McDavid
Bennett
Home
50.0% (412)
49.9% (553)
Away
45.7% (394)
45.7% (457)
By Period
McDavid
Bennett
P1
48.0%
47.4%
P2
48.5%
46.8%
P3
47.1%
48.9%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Bennett
46.0%▼
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 07:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:37 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |