Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Couturier 53.6% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 61.2%
Defensive zone
Couturier 84.5%
Neutral zone
Couturier 61.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
McDavid
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
McDavid
Couturier
Last 9: McDavid 5-4 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
3
1
McDavid
Couturier
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
McDavid
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Couturier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.9% (792)
-6.2%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
62.9% (70)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
51.3% (234)
-2.4%
On power play, Couturier has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
McDavid
Couturier
Home
50.0% (412)
51.4% (541)
Away
45.7% (394)
56.4% (555)
By Period
McDavid
Couturier
P1
48.0%
56.0%
P2
48.5%
52.6%
P3
47.1%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.1%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Couturier
64.0%▲
56.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:36 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 12, 2025 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |