Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Monahan 52.5% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.2%
Neutral zone
McDavid 60.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
McDavid
Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
McDavid
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
McDavid
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
53.0% (874)
-5.3%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
54.7% (161)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
47.5% (101)
+1.4%
On power play, Monahan has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
50.0% (412)
53.8% (558)
Away
45.7% (394)
51.7% (578)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
48.0%
49.5%
P2
48.5%
54.8%
P3
47.1%
52.8%
OT
50.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |