Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (63% H2H, 35 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Monahan 51.2% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 61-42 in 103 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 69.3%
Neutral zone
McDavid 70.9%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
McDavid
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
61
(103 meetings)
42
61
McDavid
Monahan
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
20
22
McDavid
Monahan
42 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
9
17
McDavid
Monahan
26 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
13
22
McDavid
Monahan
35 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.1% (11,407)
-3.4%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
53.6% (2,582)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
45.9% (772)
-2.1%
On even strength, Monahan has a +3.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
McDavid
Monahan
Home
49.3% (4,582)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
McDavid
Monahan
P1
46.5%
51.0%
P2
48.7%
51.7%
P3
48.3%
51.0%
OT
42.2%
53.5%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:50 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:36 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:38 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 13:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 11:34 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 00:30 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 08:44 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 05:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |