Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 62.7%
Defensive zone
McDavid 67.5%
Neutral zone
McDavid 63.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McDavid
Aho
Last 8: McDavid 2-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
2
McDavid
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
2
1
McDavid
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
50.5% (878)
-2.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
53.5% (144)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
44.3% (61)
+4.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
50.0% (412)
53.8% (571)
Away
45.7% (394)
46.9% (512)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
48.0%
49.0%
P2
48.5%
51.7%
P3
47.1%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.6%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |