Connor McDavid vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 30-29 in 59 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 61.1%
Defensive zone
McDavid 54.9%
Neutral zone
Aho 55.4%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
30
-
29
(59 meetings)
30
29
McDavid
Aho
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
8
11
McDavid
Aho
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
9
12
McDavid
Aho
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
13
6
McDavid
Aho
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (8,248)
50.1% (6,415)
-2.5%
Power Play
52.8% (362)
59.1% (1,297)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (274)
46.0% (446)
-1.8%
On power play, Aho has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,803).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,145).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
49.3% (4,495)
52.4% (4,199)
Away
46.1% (4,389)
50.2% (3,959)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
46.4%
51.2%
P2
48.7%
52.1%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
40.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.1%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
54.0%▲
45.5%
47.7%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |