Connor McDavid vs Sebastian Aho
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Aho 51.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 31-31 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 56.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 63.8%
Neutral zone
McDavid 50.2%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
McDavid
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
31
(62 meetings)
31
31
McDavid
Aho
Last 10: McDavid 3-7 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
8
12
McDavid
Aho
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
9
12
McDavid
Aho
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
14
7
McDavid
Aho
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
50.2% (6,646)
-2.5%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
58.9% (1,310)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
46.5% (465)
-2.7%
On power play, Aho has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Aho is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (5,317).
Home / Away
McDavid
Aho
Home
49.3% (4,582)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
McDavid
Aho
P1
46.5%
51.1%
P2
48.7%
52.1%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
42.2%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:43 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:29 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 08:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:29 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 13:22 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:58 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 18:56 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 03:39 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:23 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |