Scouting Report
Steven Lorentz holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Lorentz 49.5% (-1.1%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 74.5%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 60.1%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 53.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
McDavid
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
51.4% (74)
-3.7%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
50.0% (2)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
42.3% (26)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Lorentz is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (59).
Home / Away
McDavid
Lorentz
Home
50.0% (412)
52.9% (68)
Away
45.7% (394)
41.2% (34)
By Period
McDavid
Lorentz
P1
48.0%
58.6%
P2
48.5%
45.0%
P3
47.1%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.6%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Lorentz
48.0%▬
48.0%
49.0%