Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 57.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 73.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 65.8%
34.2%
65.8%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
McDavid
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
1
0
McDavid
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
58.7% (858)
-11.0%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
55.8% (285)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
62.9% (35)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
50.0% (412)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.7% (394)
56.1% (579)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
48.0%
52.4%
P2
48.5%
63.9%
P3
47.1%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |