Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 53-44 in 97 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 66.9%
Defensive zone
McDavid 65.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 68.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
McDavid
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
44
-
53
(97 meetings)
44
53
McDavid
Hertl
Last 10: McDavid 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
19
17
McDavid
Hertl
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
21
McDavid
Hertl
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
16
15
McDavid
Hertl
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
53.9% (8,303)
-6.2%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
59.2% (1,995)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
46.3% (806)
-2.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
McDavid
Hertl
Home
49.3% (4,582)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
McDavid
Hertl
P1
46.5%
53.6%
P2
48.7%
54.2%
P3
48.3%
55.3%
OT
42.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 01:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 2 | 03:21 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 02:09 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |