Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings). McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Kozak 49.7% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 75.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 77.1%
Neutral zone
Kozak 55.0%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
McDavid
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McDavid
Kozak
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Kozak
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
49.3% (294)
-1.6%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
60.0% (5)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
50.0% (40)
-1.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kozak
Home
50.0% (412)
45.5% (145)
Away
45.7% (394)
52.6% (194)
By Period
McDavid
Kozak
P1
48.0%
53.4%
P2
48.5%
50.0%
P3
47.1%
44.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |