Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.6%). Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (56% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Kozak 48.8% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 71.4%
Defensive zone
Kozak 72.7%
Neutral zone
Kozak 52.9%
Result
Tyson Kozak favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
McDavid
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McDavid
Kozak
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Kozak
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
48.3% (431)
-0.6%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
62.5% (8)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
48.9% (45)
-5.1%
On power play, Kozak has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Kozak is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (322).
Home / Away
McDavid
Kozak
Home
49.3% (4,582)
47.6% (229)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
49.4% (255)
By Period
McDavid
Kozak
P1
46.5%
54.4%
P2
48.7%
45.7%
P3
48.3%
45.7%
Final 5 min
50.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 07:45 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |