Connor McDavid vs William Karlsson
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-9.7%)
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.1%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 66.0%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
McDavid
Karlsson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
58.5% (135)
-10.8%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
80.0% (5)
-30.7%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
44.4% (18)
+4.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +30.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
McDavid
Karlsson
Home
50.0% (412)
63.7% (91)
Away
45.7% (394)
49.3% (67)
By Period
McDavid
Karlsson
P1
48.0%
54.4%
P2
48.5%
66.7%
P3
47.1%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%