Connor McDavid vs William Karlsson
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (64% H2H, 25 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Karlsson 51.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 50-41 in 91 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 72.7%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 66.3%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 65.2%
34.8%
65.2%
McDavid
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
50
-
41
(91 meetings)
50
41
McDavid
Karlsson
Last 10: McDavid 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
16
9
McDavid
Karlsson
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
13
14
McDavid
Karlsson
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
21
18
McDavid
Karlsson
39 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
51.8% (7,849)
-4.1%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
54.8% (1,048)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
44.2% (1,109)
-0.4%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Karlsson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,551).
Home / Away
McDavid
Karlsson
Home
49.3% (4,582)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
McDavid
Karlsson
P1
46.5%
50.3%
P2
48.7%
51.3%
P3
48.3%
52.4%
OT
42.2%
44.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:00 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:21 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 07:37 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 02:32 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |