Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. McDavid wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 48.1% vs Gourde 46.0% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 72.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 68.4%
Neutral zone
Gourde 52.1%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McDavid
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDavid
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (686)
47.2% (687)
+0.5%
Power Play
49.3% (75)
45.0% (20)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
48.9% (45)
33.0% (88)
+15.9%
On penalty kill, McDavid has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
50.0% (412)
44.4% (356)
Away
45.7% (394)
46.5% (439)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
48.0%
42.2%
P2
48.5%
50.0%
P3
47.1%
44.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |