Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.8% vs Gourde 48.2% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 21-20 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 64.1%
Defensive zone
Gourde 58.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 52.4%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
McDavid
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
20
(41 meetings)
21
20
McDavid
Gourde
Last 10: McDavid 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
7
9
McDavid
Gourde
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
4
McDavid
Gourde
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
9
7
McDavid
Gourde
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (8,394)
48.4% (4,987)
-0.7%
Power Play
52.1% (374)
57.4% (376)
-5.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (281)
40.0% (555)
+3.8%
On power play, Gourde has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
McDavid shoots left. Gourde is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,967).
Home / Away
McDavid
Gourde
Home
49.3% (4,582)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
46.2% (4,467)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
McDavid
Gourde
P1
46.5%
49.8%
P2
48.7%
47.5%
P3
48.3%
47.5%
OT
42.2%
37.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:52 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 09:48 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 00:48 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 06:13 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 08:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 04:00 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:24 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 14:15 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |