Connor McMichael vs Jake Guentzel
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Guentzel 48.1% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 66.2%
Defensive zone
McMichael 83.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 62.9%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
McMichael
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McMichael
Guentzel
Last 8: McMichael 3-5 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
49.1% (230)
-6.2%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
44.9% (118)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
46.2% (26)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. McMichael is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (376).
McMichael shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Home / Away
McMichael
Guentzel
Home
43.0% (298)
50.2% (205)
Away
42.6% (270)
44.4% (169)
By Period
McMichael
Guentzel
P1
46.6%
47.6%
P2
40.8%
49.0%
P3
41.8%
46.2%
Final 5 min
43.3%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |