Connor McMichael vs Jake Guentzel
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jake Guentzel holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Guentzel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Guentzel 46.7% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 65.6%
Defensive zone
McMichael 86.3%
Neutral zone
McMichael 62.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 61.4%
61.4%
38.6%
McMichael
Guentzel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
McMichael
Guentzel
Last 8: McMichael 3-5 Guentzel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
0
2
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Guentzel
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McMichael
Guentzel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Guentzel
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,583)
46.4% (715)
-3.1%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
46.6% (298)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (176)
43.2% (44)
-5.7%
On penalty kill, Guentzel has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Guentzel shoots left. McMichael is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,261).
McMichael shoots left. Guentzel is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Home / Away
McMichael
Guentzel
Home
42.6% (976)
48.9% (583)
Away
43.3% (922)
43.2% (474)
By Period
McMichael
Guentzel
P1
43.3%
48.0%
P2
43.1%
45.5%
P3
42.1%
46.0%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.6%
43.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:58 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:08 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Neutral | Jake Guentzel |