Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +17.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McMichael wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Pageau 59.0% (-17.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 80.1%
Defensive zone
McMichael 81.1%
Neutral zone
McMichael 81.5%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 81.0%
81.0%
19.0%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
McMichael
Pageau
Last 8: McMichael 2-6 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
3
McMichael
Pageau
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
2
McMichael
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
59.4% (726)
-16.5%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
69.0% (42)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
59.7% (221)
-20.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (192).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
43.0% (298)
58.4% (430)
Away
42.6% (270)
61.0% (559)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
46.6%
55.4%
P2
40.8%
61.8%
P3
41.8%
61.5%
Final 5 min
43.3%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |