Connor McMichael vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). McMichael wins 38.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.4% vs Pageau 54.7% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
McMichael 83.4%
Defensive zone
McMichael 78.7%
Neutral zone
McMichael 87.6%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
McMichael
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
14
(23 meetings)
9
14
McMichael
Pageau
Last 10: McMichael 2-8 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
4
3
McMichael
Pageau
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
7
McMichael
Pageau
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
4
McMichael
Pageau
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,542)
55.7% (9,301)
-12.4%
Power Play
46.6% (133)
56.8% (989)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (143)
49.5% (2,019)
-12.4%
On even strength, Pageau has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. McMichael is 38.4% vs right-shot opponents (601).
McMichael shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,648).
Home / Away
McMichael
Pageau
Home
42.8% (945)
56.3% (6,136)
Away
43.3% (873)
53.2% (6,173)
By Period
McMichael
Pageau
P1
43.1%
54.7%
P2
43.4%
56.2%
P3
42.2%
53.3%
OT
75.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
42.5%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Pageau
72.0%▲
62.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:13 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:34 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 18:32 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Connor McMichael |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:13 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |