Connor McMichael vs Nick Bjugstad
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. McMichael wins 39.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.9% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McMichael 52.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 50.4%
49.6%
50.4%
McMichael
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
McMichael
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
1
0
McMichael
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
McMichael
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
42.9% (408)
49.7% (292)
-6.8%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
50.0% (6)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
39.0% (105)
47.2% (36)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. McMichael is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (192).
McMichael shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
McMichael
Bjugstad
Home
43.0% (298)
48.7% (193)
Away
42.6% (270)
50.4% (141)
By Period
McMichael
Bjugstad
P1
46.6%
41.5%
P2
40.8%
57.3%
P3
41.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
43.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.8%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 12:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |