Connor McMichael vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (42.9% vs 42.6%). Look for McMichael on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McMichael wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McMichael 43.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 63.9%
Defensive zone
McMichael 71.0%
Neutral zone
McMichael 51.9%
Result
Connor McMichael favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
McMichael
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
McMichael
Novak
Last 6: McMichael 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
1
McMichael
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McMichael
2
0
McMichael
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
McMichael
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McMichael
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (1,583)
41.8% (1,568)
+1.5%
Power Play
46.0% (139)
51.5% (134)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (176)
50.0% (2)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McMichael is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,261).
McMichael shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
McMichael
Novak
Home
42.6% (976)
45.1% (831)
Away
43.3% (922)
40.2% (873)
By Period
McMichael
Novak
P1
43.3%
43.7%
P2
43.1%
42.8%
P3
42.1%
41.1%
OT
75.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
42.6%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McMichael
38.0%▼
45.0%
42.9%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:14 | Defensive | Connor McMichael |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:51 | Offensive | Connor McMichael |