Scouting Report
Jack McBain holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Zary wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — McBain shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zary 46.9% vs McBain 45.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zary 64.3%
Defensive zone
McBain 66.1%
Neutral zone
McBain 54.3%
Result
Connor Zary favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Zary
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Zary
McBain
Last 7: Zary 4-3 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
2
Zary
McBain
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zary
2
0
Zary
McBain
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zary
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zary
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (106)
46.3% (568)
-1.0%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
37.5% (8)
-37.5%
On power play, McBain has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Zary is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Zary shoots left. McBain is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Zary
McBain
Home
41.9% (62)
50.6% (330)
Away
46.8% (47)
39.7% (320)
By Period
Zary
McBain
P1
42.9%
45.4%
P2
42.5%
44.5%
P3
47.1%
45.7%
Final 5 min
16.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zary
46.0%▲
41.5%
44.0%
McBain
52.0%▲
49.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Connor Zary |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 08:56 | Defensive | Connor Zary |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Connor Zary |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 17:54 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 05:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:34 | Offensive | Jack McBain |