Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 48.8% vs Tavares 54.4% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 83.2%
Defensive zone
Lazar 78.9%
Neutral zone
Tavares 51.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Lazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Lazar
Tavares
Last 10: Lazar 5-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
8
Lazar
Tavares
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
9
3
Lazar
Tavares
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Lazar
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (2,623)
54.0% (15,885)
-4.2%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
56.5% (4,221)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (410)
50.7% (612)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lazar is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,244).
Lazar shoots right. Tavares is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (7,429).
Home / Away
Lazar
Tavares
Home
50.0% (1,541)
56.1% (10,389)
Away
47.6% (1,557)
52.7% (10,358)
By Period
Lazar
Tavares
P1
48.4%
55.1%
P2
48.8%
54.1%
P3
49.1%
54.0%
OT
56.5%
56.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
64.0%▲
58.5%
48.8%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:00 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 05:55 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 18:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 19:21 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 15:18 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 6, 2021 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 16:42 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 3 | 15:16 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 08:26 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 23, 2016 | 2 | 05:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |