Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lazar wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 51.0% vs Dowd 49.9% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lazar 80.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.8%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Lazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Lazar
Dowd
Last 6: Lazar 3-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
0
Lazar
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Lazar
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (356)
52.2% (835)
-0.8%
Power Play
62.5% (8)
60.0% (10)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
44.0% (350)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Lazar has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Lazar is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Lazar shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Lazar
Dowd
Home
49.7% (163)
51.5% (619)
Away
52.3% (237)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Lazar
Dowd
P1
46.9%
51.7%
P2
53.3%
51.6%
P3
53.3%
47.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
64.0%▲
58.5%
51.3%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:15 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |