Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.8% vs 48.5%). Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 48.8% vs Foligno 48.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 76.4%
Defensive zone
Lazar 68.5%
Neutral zone
Lazar 51.5%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Lazar
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Lazar
Foligno
Last 9: Lazar 4-5 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
3
Lazar
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
3
1
Lazar
Foligno
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lazar
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (2,623)
48.3% (2,764)
+1.5%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
52.3% (723)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (410)
43.4% (447)
-1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Lazar is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,244).
Lazar shoots right. Foligno is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,469).
Home / Away
Lazar
Foligno
Home
50.0% (1,541)
49.8% (1,993)
Away
47.6% (1,557)
47.1% (1,943)
By Period
Lazar
Foligno
P1
48.4%
47.9%
P2
48.8%
50.0%
P3
49.1%
48.4%
OT
56.5%
29.7%
Final 5 min
49.6%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
64.0%▲
58.5%
48.8%
Foligno
40.0%▼
51.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:32 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 07:46 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2020 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 15:43 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 3 | 04:55 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 13, 2020 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |