Scouting Report
Curtis Lazar holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Lazar wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 58.1% vs Stamkos 55.4% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.5%
Defensive zone
Lazar 81.9%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 53.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 85.5%
14.5%
85.5%
Lazar
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Lazar
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Lazar
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
63.5% (181)
57.1% (368)
+6.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
55.2% (96)
-55.2%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (71)
50.0% (10)
+6.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +55.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lazar is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Lazar shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stamkos
Home
63.0% (135)
53.9% (230)
Away
59.3% (118)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Lazar
Stamkos
P1
64.6%
56.7%
P2
60.0%
54.1%
P3
59.3%
59.2%
Final 5 min
67.2%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
61.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |