Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lazar wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Lazar leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 78.0%
Defensive zone
Lazar 65.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 55.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Lazar
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
Lazar
Stamkos
Last 10: Lazar 6-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Lazar
Stamkos
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Lazar
Stamkos
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lazar
2
1
Lazar
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,665)
50.5% (9,825)
-0.3%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
55.2% (1,729)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
49.6% (827)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lazar is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Lazar shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Lazar
Stamkos
Home
50.1% (1,549)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Lazar
Stamkos
P1
48.9%
49.2%
P2
48.9%
52.7%
P3
49.5%
50.9%
OT
56.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
72.0%▲
63.0%
49.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 11:43 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 08:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 2 | 14:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Feb 8, 2016 | 2 | 11:32 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 20, 2015 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 05:40 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 1 | 02:45 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |