Scouting Report
Mark Scheifele holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Scheifele 47.2% (-7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 83.5%
Defensive zone
Scheifele 67.9%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 70.6%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Mercer
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Mercer
Scheifele
Last 6: Mercer 4-2 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
1
0
Mercer
Scheifele
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
2
Mercer
Scheifele
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mercer
2
0
Mercer
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
46.5% (919)
-7.7%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
48.7% (187)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
50.0% (54)
+4.5%
On power play, Scheifele has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Mercer is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Mercer shoots right. Scheifele is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Mercer
Scheifele
Home
35.2% (145)
46.6% (605)
Away
43.2% (146)
47.4% (555)
By Period
Mercer
Scheifele
P1
32.7%
52.3%
P2
42.7%
45.3%
P3
42.9%
43.9%
Final 5 min
39.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Scheifele
44.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:24 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:30 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |