Scouting Report
Ryan Strome holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mercer wins 39.9% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Strome 44.6% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 57.7%
Defensive zone
Strome 50.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 62.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Mercer
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Mercer
Strome
Last 10: Mercer 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mercer
Strome
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Mercer
Strome
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
1
2
Mercer
Strome
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
44.2% (6,887)
-5.1%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
49.2% (855)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
41.5% (410)
-0.2%
On power play, Strome has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. Mercer is 39.9% vs right-shot opponents (449).
Mercer shoots right. Strome is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (2,379).
Home / Away
Mercer
Strome
Home
40.1% (756)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
38.5% (792)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
Mercer
Strome
P1
38.2%
43.9%
P2
39.2%
45.4%
P3
41.2%
44.4%
OT
0.0%
46.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:13 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 1, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 3 | 04:01 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 08:51 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:56 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 00:28 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 14, 2021 | OT | 02:17 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 06:03 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:30 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |