Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall. Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.9% vs Crosby 55.1% (-16.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 63.0%
Defensive zone
Mercer 66.0%
Neutral zone
Mercer 72.8%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Mercer
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Mercer
Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Mercer
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.3% (1,025)
-14.5%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
64.7% (249)
-29.4%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
60.0% (15)
-5.5%
On power play, Crosby has a +29.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Mercer
Crosby
Home
35.2% (145)
56.9% (675)
Away
43.2% (146)
54.1% (614)
By Period
Mercer
Crosby
P1
32.7%
55.1%
P2
42.7%
53.1%
P3
42.9%
58.5%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |