Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Crosby 53.5% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 14-4 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 92.3%
Defensive zone
Mercer 88.9%
Neutral zone
Mercer 89.4%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 90.1%
90.1%
9.9%
Mercer
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
14
(18 meetings)
4
14
Mercer
Crosby
Last 10: Mercer 3-7 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
5
Mercer
Crosby
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
3
Mercer
Crosby
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
6
Mercer
Crosby
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
52.8% (18,031)
-13.7%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
57.4% (4,741)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
47.0% (766)
-5.7%
On power play, Crosby has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Crosby is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (8,671).
Home / Away
Mercer
Crosby
Home
40.1% (756)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
38.5% (792)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
Mercer
Crosby
P1
38.2%
53.6%
P2
39.2%
53.8%
P3
41.2%
53.3%
OT
0.0%
49.6%
Final 5 min
39.6%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 08:58 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 19:20 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:42 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 07:23 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:14 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 2 | 18:02 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Feb 13, 2022 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 16:40 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |