Scouting Report
Yanni Gourde holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Mercer wins 39.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 39.9% vs Gourde 48.2% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Mercer 76.3%
Defensive zone
Gourde 51.6%
Neutral zone
Mercer 62.6%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Mercer
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Mercer
Gourde
Last 10: Mercer 3-7 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
3
0
Mercer
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Mercer
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
4
Mercer
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (1,412)
48.4% (4,987)
-9.3%
Power Play
41.1% (90)
57.4% (376)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (46)
40.0% (555)
+1.3%
On power play, Gourde has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Mercer is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,099).
Mercer shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,950).
Home / Away
Mercer
Gourde
Home
40.1% (756)
49.3% (2,949)
Away
38.5% (792)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Mercer
Gourde
P1
38.2%
49.8%
P2
39.2%
47.5%
P3
41.2%
47.5%
OT
0.0%
37.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.3%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:48 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:16 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:28 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 1 | 18:45 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 19:38 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 13:15 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 1 | 04:25 | Defensive | Dawson Mercer |