Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +18.2% FO% edge overall. Toninato wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toninato 44.9% vs Tavares 59.8% (-18.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 91.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 54.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 82.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Toninato
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Toninato
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toninato
1
0
Toninato
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toninato
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (184)
60.9% (1,043)
-17.4%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
60.4% (278)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
47.6% (21)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Toninato is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Toninato shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Home / Away
Toninato
Tavares
Home
45.6% (114)
63.5% (684)
Away
38.5% (91)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Toninato
Tavares
P1
37.3%
60.3%
P2
41.7%
60.4%
P3
48.6%
60.1%
Final 5 min
41.7%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toninato
42.0%▼
46.5%
42.4%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 12:05 | Defensive | Dominic Toninato |