Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.5%). Look for Cozens on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Cozens shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Cozens 45.9% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.7%
Defensive zone
Cozens 58.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Nelson
Cozens
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Cozens
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Cozens
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Cozens
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
3
Nelson
Cozens
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
0
1
Nelson
Cozens
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cozens
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
46.7% (786)
-0.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
43.9% (171)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.3% (189)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Cozens has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cozens shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Cozens is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cozens
Home
48.7% (419)
46.2% (567)
Away
41.3% (368)
44.9% (579)
By Period
Nelson
Cozens
P1
44.6%
46.5%
P2
47.3%
46.5%
P3
43.0%
44.2%
OT
100.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
39.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Cozens
46.0%▼
50.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 15:26 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:22 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:44 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:32 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |