Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 53.2% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 74.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 89.0%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 65.7%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 65.7%
34.3%
65.7%
Cozens
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Cozens
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cozens
2
0
Cozens
Kastelic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (634)
60.8% (362)
-7.6%
Power Play
57.7% (97)
83.3% (6)
-25.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
56.2% (146)
-22.9%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Cozens is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Cozens shoots right. Kastelic is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (84).
Home / Away
Cozens
Kastelic
Home
54.8% (383)
60.3% (242)
Away
52.3% (354)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Cozens
Kastelic
P1
56.0%
58.9%
P2
51.2%
57.3%
P3
53.9%
64.0%
OT
40.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
50.7%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
62.0%▲
53.0%
53.6%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:03 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |